March 1 Game Predictions

 Gramps has been hitting on about 85% of his game predictions (posted ratings vs. actual outcome) but there was one game yesterday that made me a little sad.

Yep, the Meadville Girls, who had won 59 straight games, and were my odds-on favorite to win Class One again, lost to Northeast Cairo, by 13 when they had been favored to win by 16.  That's a 29-point reversal, based upon Gramp's ratings.

I take a neutral, statistical stance on these occurrences. Still, Meadville celebrated every one of their victories with a shout-out to Gramps and several other basketball authorities and I have become emotionally attached to their successes.  

I have seen it before.   Teams have had perfect seasons come to an abrupt end with an upset in the finals or semi-finals of a Cinderella season.  I have not lived in a small town but the high school team usually becomes the center of the town's focus and the townspeople live and die with the success of that team, boys or girls.

There must be some long faces in Meadville today.  You won't find many places to eat in Meadville and you have to drive over to Brookfield to the Cup of Joy Coffee House for a good cup of coffee but if there are Meadville fans at the Cup of Joy today, you probably won't see any joy whatsoever.  Meadville might eventually get over this disappointment, but then, it might be hard to forget and it might even be harder to get back the joy of several undefeated seasons.

These dynasties don't come along very often and they sometimes disappear just as quick as they started.  I remember Dora when Coach Rick Luna had Isaac Haney, and his triplet sons playing for him, and they were nearly unbeatable.  South Iron couldn't make the state finals until Luna was discharged by the Dora school board and went off to Viola and won another state championship in Arkansas.  Dora's basketball program has never recovered.

I don't know what plans Steve Carvajal may have, but if he moves on, he would be taking his daughters with him and Meadville would be in the same boat as Dora.  Pining for the past glory which may never return.

So, I feel for the town of Meadville this morning, and for all those other teams that should have won but did not.  I do feel good about the team ratings and the spreads (the difference between two opposing teams' ratings).  

83% of yesterday's games went according to Gramp's ratings and the spreads were about right too.

A lot more basketball to come.  Just not for Meadville and half the teams that played yesterday.

Wrong picks are in red lettering.  Winners are bolden.