How good are the Lathrop Girls Basketball team?

 KCI Conference (@KCI_Athletics) replied to the new MBCA coaches poll where Lathrop, who is 22-0, has been #4 in the Class Three girls basketball poll for the past month or so.

I have had Lathrop at #10 in Gramps ratings but not necessarily a top 5 team.  But how good is Lathrop?  There are few undefeated teams in Missouri and Lathrop is one of those few remaining undefeated teams.

Lathrop's Girls Coach Greg Keith chimed into the conversation to answer KCI Conference with "No disrespect to your intent, but at the end of the day, esp this late in the season, it doesn’t matter. I appreciate the MBCA for putting out these polls. It’s fun for the kids, and it’s fun to debate who should be where and why. Our girls know what matters starts next week!"

And Coach Keith is right.  The rubber hits the road next week for all these teams.

I decided to take some time out to look at Lathrop and my #1 and #2 teams in class three, Fair Grove (17-7) and El Dorado (21-3).  

I will go through how I calculate their ratings and SOS and later discuss what Lathrop's record might be if they played Fair Grove or El Dorado's schedule.

And what did I find?

First, Lathrop's strength of schedule (SOS) was 111 while Fair Grove's SOS was 130 and El Dorado's SOS was 126.  So Lathrop's schedule is about 15 to 20 points lower than the top two teams.  There is not a single Class 5 or Class 6 on Lathrop's schedule.

Fair Grove, on the other hand, has played Rock Bridge, Kickapoo, Nixa and Republic, all class 6 teams, which has dropped their record to 17-7  but has probably toughened them for the a state championship run.

El Dorado, who split two games with Fair Grove, has played Republic, Camdenton and Nevada, for a 21-3 record but the schedule is not quite as tough as Fair Grove.  Given the SOS of Fair Grove, they have a slight edge on El Dorado on overall rating.

Here's how each team's season has played out, game by game, and how their rating and SOS is calculated:

So, KCI Conference, Lathrop is undefeated with a 111 SOS.  What if they played the teams that Fair Grove or El Dorado have played.

It is fairly easy to figure out what their record would be.  I took Lathrop's rating of 133.6 and compared it to Fair Grove's opponents.  If the opponent's rating was lower than 133.6, Lathrop got a W.  If the opponent rating was higher than Lathop's rating, Lathrop got a L.  

I did the exact same thing for Lathrop vs. El Dorado's schedule.  The results are below and the records are at the bottom.

So, while Lathrop has gotten enough votes to be a #4 team by the MBCA pollsters, they wouldn't be an undefeated team if they played Fair Grove's or El Dorado's schedule.  They would be 11-15 vs Fair Grove's opponents and 16-10 vs. El Dorado.

But as Coach Keith said, none of this matters.  They will put it on the line next week.  It does not matter who won the last game.  It only matters what you do the next game. 

You can be good.  You can be very good, but the truth is, if you don't do your utmost best, there is someone out there who is even better.

There is always a bigger fish in the ocean.  Maybe Lathrop's girls will be the big fish next week.

Good Luck to you all.