When 4-8 equals or beats 8-3?

 I occasionally have someone who inquires about my ratings.  Most of the time, the inquiries are polite and inquisitive.  They do not understand how their team, with an 8-3 record, is rated lower than another team that has lost two-thirds of their games.  

I will go back and recalculate and double-check my ratings.  Most of the time the stats are correct.  Occasionally the calculations are off and I fix them.  The Pit@Central and SWMO Sports politely asked about Springfield Central's rating and I did a deep dive and determined they were a #4 team instead of a #7 rated team in class six.

A few Barstool guys get bent out of shape when their team is dissed.  Most of them are good guys.  I had this discussion yesterday with some Barstool Guy about 8-3 Glendale and 4-8 Ozark boys.  I had rated Ozark two points better than Glendale:

Well, thanks Barstool guy.  Really gives your school a good vibe with everyone when you cuss out an elder.  I guess I am just some old fork to some folk, running team scores on a computer.  The fact that you do not like the answers does not mean that the statistics are wrong.  I guess you could go to the coaches poll to find out where Glendale is in the top 10.

I reran the Glendale and Ozark ratings and came up with the same numbers, although the Glendale raw rating was actually a couple of clicks lower than my ratings post, which might make someone even more belligerent.

Here are the comparisons..... I bet it will be a close game between Ozark and Glendale on January 23rd.  Glendale has a slight edge with home court but this game should be very competitive and come down to the last few minutes before the outcome is assured.  

Despite the acrimony of Barstool guy, I wish both teams the best of luck the rest of the season.

I just thought readers might better understand how some teams get rated above others.  It is just simple math.

Glendale has a slightly harder schedule in the back half and I expect them to finish about 13-12. They play #1 nationally ranked Paul VI next week in a game that they might be 45 point underdogs.

 

Ozark has an easier back half of their schedule and they might get back to 12-12.

 

And folks, a 4-8 team can have a higher rating than an 8-3 team. We will find out January 23rd if this old Fork needs to recalculate.