Gramp's Braggin' Rights Missouri HS girls basketball ratings - Class Two

Updated March 8th, 2024

Gramps final Missouri Class Two Girls basketball ratings might look a little strange to some people.  When the MBCA does their final poll, the top four teams in the state tournament are the top four teams in their poll.

Gramps does not do that.  I reward teams by rating them on their entire season, so for a team like Principia, who had a dream season and ended up in the final vs. Skyline, I do not have them as my #2 team.  They had a great season, but not as good as third-place finisher, Tipton, who were defeated by Skyline in the semi-final, nor Thayer, who was upset by Neelyville in the district tournament.

I looked at the Neelyville/Thayer matchup.  They played two common opponents... Alton and Liberty Mountainview.  Thayer won both convincingly while Neelyville lost both.  Looking at the entire season in total, Thayer was a better team, just not on that fateful night of February 21st.

Skyline was the best team all year and they proved it with convincing wins throughout the post-season.  They also had to navigate a tougher lower state bracket (Strength of Opponents = 129) vs. Principia in the top bracket where opponents' ratings averaged 119.  Principia lucked out on the bracket arrangement while they got hot down the stretch.  I still rated them #4 based on their fine finish.

East Carter (21-6) is another worthy team that did not make it out of districts, losing to Neelyville (19-11) in their district final but winning by four and eight in regular season matches.  Like I said, I reward consistent performance for the entire year so that hopefully explains East Carter in the #7 spot.

Hats off to Skyline, a team that could compete in the class five or six tournament.  Some great teams in class two!

Updated February 26th, 2024

Tyler Monier, over at All Missouri Sports (@ShowMeMO_Sports), has been actively working on a new predictive statistical model that compares very favorably to Gramps comparative ratings.  Tyler uses an Offensive factor and Defensive factor to predict spreads and scores pretty accurately.  As I retire and head into the sunset, I hope you will all Follow Tyler as his model picks up steam.

As for Gramps Class Two Girls, I hit on 80% of the overall games but only 62.5% of my favored district champions.  I did not post spreads or favorites but I use my last ratings (2/14) and compare who won vs. who I had rated higher.  Higher rated teams with a win is a correct pick.  Lower rated winning teams is an incorrect pick.  I usually hit about 80-85% of my higher rated teams winning throughout the playoffs but some teams just don't want to cooperate with the ratings.

My #11 Neelyville had a nice run in District Two, beating #3 Thayer and #5 East Carter.  A really tough district and sad to see three top ten type teams stuck together like that.  #22 Schuyler County upended # 13 La Plata in District Six and #18 Fayette blasted #15 Salisbury by sixteen in what should have been a close game.  #42 Crocker got by #36 Iberia in District Nine and #43 Crane ran the table vs. #17 Fordland and District 12 favorite, #14 Blue Eye, to win a title.  Finally, #49 Gallatin came out of nowhere to beat #1 seed Polo (rated #30) in the semi-final and upstart #80 Tarkio Fair in the final.

Except for Thayer and East Carter, the other top ten teams survived to get into the State tournament.  I will update the Class Two Girls prior to that tournament start.

Updated February 12th, 2024

I am trying to wrap up my ratings before districts but am running out of time.  Grandma and I are heading out of town for a Caribbean cruise on Friday and I don't know how I will finish these district ratings before we leave.

Of course, a good way to get killed would be to take my computer on the cruise.  LOL

Class Two Missouri Girls Basketball is looking just fine.  Skyline, Tipton and Thayer, to name a few, are rocking at the top of this class.  I have posted the ratings, followed by the schools sorted by districts.  I am not trying to keep track of district seedings and I doubt those that are seeding are paying much attention to Gramps Braggin' Rights ratings.

I will talk more about the State tournament, once districts are over and the bracket is set, but I will comment on a couple of things.

Districts 1-4 and 9-12 will be in the top bracket.  That means that #3 Thayer and #6 Principia will probably meet in a quarterfinal.  The other top bracket quarterfinal will probably have #10 Norwood, #12 Miller, #14 Blue Eye or #16 Marionville.  Who gets to that quarterfinal game will depend on district results.

In the lower bracket, #4 Clopton and #2 Tipton will probably face off in one quarterfinal, and #1 Skyline and #7 North Platte in the other quarterfinal.  It is a fairly balanced state bracket for a change.

My prediction is that Skyline and Thayer will meet in the final with Skyline taking the gold.

Below the ratings are the district seeds (my version)

As normally happens, certain districts are tougher to navigate than others.  The most difficult and competitive districts will be seven and two, with ratings of 110 and 108, about 10 rating points higher than most districts.

District seven has Salisbury, Fayette and Westran battling it out and with New Franklin, Harrisburg and Sturgeon close behind.  Any of these teams could get hot and win District Seven.

District Two, with Thayer, East Carter, Alton and Neelyville is also a strong field.

Here's a look at who should take district titles in Class Two girls:

• District 1: Portageville is the clear favorite, nearly 30 points better than the second best team
• District 2: Thayer has a slight edge over E. Carter, Alton and Neelyville but should prevail.
• District 3: Bismark is slightly favored over Lesterville
• District 4: Principia wins a second straight district title.  How far can they go?
• District 5: Clopton should prevail, being 9 points better than Canton
• District 6: La Plata is a seven point favorite over Schuyler County
• District 7: District is a dog-fight with a slight edge to Salisbury.
• District 8: Tipton is a clear favorite.... 26 points better than Russellville or Linn
• District 9:  Iberia and Richland are co-favorites
• District 10: Norwood is about 10 points better than Hartville and Bakersfield
• District 11: Blue Eye and Fordland are co-favorites
• District 12: Miller and Marionville are co-favorites.
• District 13: Skyline is 32 points better than second seeded Marion C Early
• District 14: NW Mendon has a slight edge over Archie and Santa Fe
• District 15: North Platte is the favorite
• District 16: Polo is the favorite

Updated January 22, 2024

The other day, I had a Class Two boys basketball coach contact me about my ratings.  He wondered when the ratings would be updated because coaches were looking for guidance on who to vote for in the MBCA poll.  I thought that was complimentary to old Gramps.  I have put up the MBCA poll next to my ratings, not to embarrass anyone, but to point out teams that were not getting any love from the coaches poll.  

I did the same in early January for the Class Two Girls ratings and I now see some teams I had on my ratings that were not on the coach's radar.  I don't dare to believe that coaches all read my blog and voted for those teams in the poll but it would be nice to hear that a few did actually take note of Gramps Braggin' Rights ratings.  

Thayer moved from not mentioned to #3, Alton from not mentioned to T-8, and Clopton from not mentioned to Honorable Mention.  Congrats to those teams for being recognized.

Well, if the weather cooperates, Thayer has a big game with Strafford.  Thayer has been playing outstate teams and now that they are playing more Missouri teams, they are coming on.  They may have been great before their January games but it is hard to rate a team playing a large portion of the schedule out of state unless you want to rate every border team from Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Tennessee and Illinois. I do rate some of these teams but to really get a robust statistical rating for a team, you need about ten games and I am not sure I want to invest that kind of time.  I already spend 20-30 hours on the six boys and girls classes.

Thayer is playing Strafford in a Braggin' Rights game tonight, assuming the weather cooperates, in a game where both teams have virtually identical ratings.  This is one of those "too close to call" games where it might take a buzzer-beater to win it, although these are 15, 16, and 17-year-olds so the final score might be +20 either way.  LOL

Skyline continues to lead the Class Two Girls pack with Tipton right behind.  If those two teams are the best in the state, and that is always a big IF, then they would meet in the semi-final of the lower bracket and Thayer or Clopton from the upper bracket for the championship.

Updated January 6th, 2024

I might sound like a broken record when I say I looked over the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association (MBCA) poll for class two and noticed some great teams were absent.  If you scroll down to the bottom of Gramp's Braggin' Rights class two girl's ratings, you will find my last post in December.

It is not only a broken record, it is possibly a broken poll system.  As I understand it, the MBCA charges dues or a fee to be a member, and many coaches have opted out of paying those fees.  According to Guy Newcomb, the Scoreboard Guy, "MBCA polls include all MSHSAA member schools but the voters have to be a part of MBCA. Most of the larger schools make it mandatory that coaches are members and pay the dues, smaller schools don’t pay dues. The dues are $45 per year for head coach and $110 per coaching staff."  Smaller schools may not have the budget to pay the dues.  Coaches sometimes only make less than $20 per hour when you add up all the hours they work.  The poll is only for dues-paying members, so as more small school coaches drop out, the smaller school polls become more inaccurate because fewer areas are represented.  Not only do the polls get worse, but I have heard that the drop-outs cannot vote for post-season honors for their kids, so great high school players do not get recognized.

Seems like there should be a better system?  How about Gramp's Braggin' Rights ratings?  

Many of Gramp's followers are coaches who have dropped out of the MBCA.  The other part of the MBCA polls that troubles me, is that the few coaches remaining are voting based on their opinion. Their number one job is to get kids ready to play basketball.  They may keep track of their opponents but have little time to spend scouting teams from other parts of Missouri.  When they vote, they vote for the teams they know and a few they have heard about but it is probably not based on a thorough investigation of all teams in their class.

 Gramps uses statistics to calculate these ratings.  Game scores from EVERY team in the state.   Every team's rating is based upon probably 30-50 schools because their opponents play many games with uncommon opponents.  All of those interactive game score comparisons build power into the statistical model. (I always value statistics over opinions, cuz you know the saying about opinions?   "Opinions are like a certain body part, everyone has one...".  Doesn't mean that they are any good, they just have 'em.).  Maybe if all the coaches were chiming in, the polls would be better, but as representation around the state drops, the polls start to get "iffy".

So what's really going on in Class Two girls?  Well, Skyline and Tipton are still on top with Skyline having the edge by their five-point win over Tipton in December.  Thayer is finally playing in-state teams and has moved up to third and should continue to close the gap on the top two.  I have put the MBCA poll ranking in the far right column and those teams with an X are not listed in the poll.

Besides Thayer, the MBCA has neglected Alton, Neelyville, La Plata, Bakersfield, Canton, and Marion C. Early to name just a few.

On the other side of the coin, the MBCA voted Marionville #8 when Gramps has them at #18, NW Hughesville (#5 vs. Gramps #23), Portageville (#10 vs. Gramps #29), and University Academy (#6 vs. Gramps #33).  These are all decent teams but not worthy of being rated above the teams with an X in Gramp's top 20. 

So, here are Gramp's updated class two Missouri girls' team ratings, statistically based, not just a few coaches' opinions:

Posted December 11, 2023

I was reviewing the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association poll for class two girls and noticed some great teams are absent from the list.  I have not waded through every team in class two, but enough of the top teams to know something is amiss.

Of course, Thayer has been playing mainly outstate teams and it is tough for even the coaches or Gramps to get a bead on them.  Other teams missing from the MBCA poll are Neelyville, LaPlata and Canton, Bakersfield, Salisbury, Blue Eye, Laquey, and New Franklin, just to name a few.  

NW Hughesville, University Academy, Marceline, Gallatin, Crane, and Richland are much improved teams this year, but not on my top 10 list.  I have included the MBCA rating on the right-hand side as a comparison.

I hope the coaches poll are paying attention to these teams the next time they have a vote.

I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and does not over-imbibe, over-eat, or get the bleacher back from too many holiday tournament basketball games.

Bless you all!