Gramp's Braggin' Rights Missouri HS girls basketball ratings - Class Three
Updated March 12th, 2024
There was a time in January and early February, when the MBCA Coaches poll had El Dorado at #1 and Fair Grove at #2 but Gramps never doubted Fair Grove, who was my #1 all year long. I had them tied for #1 in the January 25th ratings but only that once. El Dorado gave Fair Grove a good game in the championship, but the Lady Eagles outlasted El Dorado in a low-scoring defensive struggle to win their second consecutive title.
There were some great teams behind these two powerhouses. Centralia, Fatima, Montgomery County, California. Lathrop, South Shelby, and Strafford, who lost to Fair Grove in a stacked district, were all balanced teams. In a normal year, any of these great teams might have taken home the gold but Fair Grove and El Dorado were just that much better. Both of those teams could challenge a bunch of class five or six top rated teams.
Congratulations to all!
Updated February 26th, 2024
Gramp's Class Three Girls predictions (based on 2/14 ratings) were better than the Class Two Girls and nearly equal to the 87% winner predictions of Class One Girls.
Gramps hit 85% of all district games and 93.75% of all district champions (15 out of 16), based upon my seeded ratings from two weeks ago.
Only in District 14, where #43 Pembroke Hill upset #25 Lone Jack, who was a clear favorite. Gramps not only picked 15 of the 16 district winners, but also was close on a number of the spreads (predicted winning margin is calculated by the difference in team ratings).
With only Lone Jack at #25 eliminated, the rest of the top 10 teams are still alive and striving for a State Title. I will update the ratings after I finish Class Five and Six Boys and Girls and prior to the Class Three state tournament.
Updated February 14th, 2024
Happy Valentine's Day to all the great women out there and happy birthday to my 50-year-old son.
It's is getting close to the District playoffs in Missouri Girls Class Three and it will be an exciting time. There are some great battles expected in several districts. Districts 6, 7, and 10 will be especially tough, where a state playoff-worthy team will not make it to the state tournament bracket. I will discuss district matchups below but first let's take a look at the state tournament scenarios.
Like other classes, Class Three will pair off districts 1-4 and 9-12 in the top bracket and 5-8 and 13-16 in the bottom bracket. That means that the two top teams all season, Fair Grove and El Dorado will not meet until the state final, if they win out, as expected.
El Dorado will have to get by Lone Jack (District 14), then a quarter-final with District 15 champs (Lathrop, South Harrison, or Bishop LeBlond), and then a semi-final matchup with most probably Centralia or Montgomery Co. (whoever is District 7 champs) or South Shelby or Palmyra (District 6 likely winner).
Fair Grove will probably face Clever in the opening round, a tough matchup with Fatima (District 9 champ) before an easy semi-final and then a probable state title game. So Fair Grove and Fatima have an easier path to the final than El Dorado.
Look at the district pairings and predictions below:
- District 1: Twin Rivers is the favorite in the weakest class three district
- District 2: Saxony Lutheran is a prohibitive favorite
- District 3: St. Pius X Festus should handle Arcadia Valley in that final
- District 4: Metro should win another weak district
- District 5: Elsberry is the likely district champ
- District 6: South Shelby and Palmyra are favored but Monroe City and Highland are lurking
- District 7: Centralia and Montgomery Co. are co-favorites with Father Tolton, Hermann and North Calloway challenging in the second toughest district in class thee
- District 8: California should win this easily
- District 9: Fatima should walk through their competition
- District 10: Licking and Liberty Mountain View will probably face off in a tight final
- District 11: Fair Grove should win but has to get by #9 Strafford and #16 Sparta
- District 12: Clever should edge Diamond in a good final
- District 13: El Dorado walks over district opponents
- District 14: Lone Jack is favored
- District 15: Lathrop faces tough competition from Bishop LeBlond and South Harrison
- District 16: Trenton and Carrollton are co-favorites
Updated 01/25/2024
I have had several inquiries about teams with outstanding records but lower ratings.
Joe Andrews tweeted:
I had just looked at class two girls and my ratings were solid. The problem with most readers is they look at winning records and not Strength of Schedule (SOS). Appleton City and Leeton had played much tougher competition. Chilhowee had not. So Chilhowee's 14-2 record was against softer competition. It is not Chilhowee's fault. Your AD sets up a schedule with area teams, mostly in your class but not always. Proximity plays a big role in determining your SOS. If you want to improve your SOS, you have to look for higher classification teams which can impact your winning record. Some schools are very comfortable with going into District competition with a 50-50 record because the increased competition hardens your team. They know what it is like to play some big dogs.
So Gramps ratings look pretty silly when you add the record to my ratings.
Fact is, Gramps never looks at records. I just look at scoreboards and compare teams by their winning or losing margin. Gramps Braggin' Rights ratings are comparative so when you match two teams up, the difference in rating is the projected outcome between the two teams.
I had Schuyler County tweet out "Gramps called it". I answered back, "Let me guess, Schuyler County beat Scotland County by seven?" Guess what? Schuyler County 65, Scotland County 58
I had another reader, Max Gagnon @KCI_Athletics, message me about Class 3 Lathrop. Lathrop is excellent this year.... 14-0 in fact. Max thought I should have Lathrop in my top five because of their record and because the MBCA has them at #4. I went back through my calculations for Lathrop and they came up right where I had them. About a 130 rating and #10 in my ratings. When I checked the SOS, guess what? Lathrop is playing a SOS of 96 so they should be beating these teams by 34 points on average. I checked their points scored to points allowed and it was 58-33 or 25 points difference. I don't know, maybe the coach puts in the scrubs earlier than most coaches. If that is the case, their rating might be 10 points higher, but I can only calculate off the MSHSAA scoreboard. I am not at their games. If Max is right, Lathrop will tear up their district.
So who's on top of class three? It's a toss-up with Fair Grove and El Dorado tied at #1. The teams have split two games (Fair Grove won by 9, El Dorado won the second by 5) but El Dorado beat Skyline and Fair Grove lost to Skyline. They are statistically equal. There are some great teams with 10 rating points below them and those next 10 teams could be shuffled and drawn out of a hat,
Continued success to you all!
Updated 01/14/2024
Class Two Tipton coach and AD, Jason Culpepper, messaged me with "El Dorado one of the best teams I’ve seen in a few years and they split with Fair Grove. Figured you just missed them. Love what you do".
Are there two better Missouri Class Three girls' basketball teams than Fair Grove and El Dorado? Fatima, Palmyra, Montgomery County, and Centralia might argue. Even south Shelby, California, and Strafford might also chime in, come state tournament time. But Fair Grove and El Dorado, who have split two games, have a slight edge on the rest. Fair Grove beat El Dorado by nine in the first matchup and El Dorado edged out Fair Grove by five, both on Fair Grove's home court.
Fair Grove has not shied away from a competitive schedule either, playing West Plains, Rock Bridge, Greenwood, Logan-Rogersville, Kickapoo and El Dorado (twice). The Lady Eagles still have Helias, St. James, Republic and Strafford on their regular season schedule. El Dorado has played Rolla, Republic and Nevada and the two games with the Eagles.
It's great when I get insight from coaches and ADs who are in the basketball forest. Sometimes I don't see the forest from the trees when I just look at scoreboard results and their basketball advice is value-added. My biggest problem is getting every team's record added into the model. I just do not have enough time in the day and so a team like El Dorado might only have a few games added when their rating would change dramatically with all their games.
When I posted the all-class listing yesterday, someone mentioned a class six girls game result from this week. Well, I started the year with class six and now I am two weeks behind the eight-ball and need to start back through again.
Back to Class Three girls.... The good news is that Fair Grove in District Eleven, is in the opposite bracket from El Dorado for the state tournament, so the "best" two teams might meet in the state final. That is a big "IF" when you have some many great Class Three teams. The bad news?
If you are in District Six or Seven, you have a really crowded field with at least two top ten teams in each district. Palmyra and South Shelby are really good in District Six. Montgomery County and Centralia are both great in District Seven and all four are nearly the same rating. Districts Five-Eight and 13 to 16 are all in the lower bracket and these four aforementioned teams will all be challenging El Dorado.
In the top bracket, Fair Grove's biggest challenge might come from Fatima, the #3 team in my ratings.
Ah, State playoffs..... just a little over a month before that starts.
BTW, the MBCA coaches for class three seem to be on top of who is good.
Posted 12/15/2023
I usually shout out to the top ten teams in my posts, but I wanted to encourage the Southwest High School Lady Trojans of Washburn, Missouri who have started season 0-9, being outscored 25-61 on average. Their closest game was a 51-54 loss to Everton in November.
Gals, keep your chin up. Keep working hard. Work on getting good shots and avoiding costly turnovers. Look for things that you did well in every loss. Keep encouraging each other. In 20 years, you may not remember the losses this year, but I bet you will remember the friendships you made and the emotions you shared. That first win is coming soon and there will be more successes in your future.
Exeter and Purdy better look out for you gals. And Verona, Billings, Wheaton, and School of Ozarks better look out for you, too. Good luck to the Lady Trojans for the rest of your season and that goes for all of those teams that are struggling early.
Here are Gramps Braggin' Rights Missouri Class three girls basketball ratings... Fair Grove, Strafford and district 11 leads the class with the toughest district. Lot's of great teams down the line that might be moving up.
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