Gramp's Braggin' Rights Missouri HS girls basketball ratings - Class One

Updated March 8th, 2024

Congratulations to the PLATTE VALLEY Longhorns (aka South Nodaway/Jefferson (Conjunction) according to MSHSAA).  They soundly defeated a great Northeast Cairo squad, 64-52, to win their third state title in four years, or so I think.

It is a bit confusing with all the names involved at Platte Valley etc. etc.  I assume that the school districts have combined town teams from those parts to come up with the convoluted name, but they have been mighty fine, whatever you call them.

They may have felt Gramps disrespected them throughout this year.  

I had them rated in my top four all year long but never at the top.  Why?  Well, their Strength of Schedule was not that great and that dragged down their rating.  It is tough to rate teams that are 300 miles apart (like Platte Valley and Delta) when they do not play any common opponents.  You really do not know how really good they are until you get to the state tournament, and boy, oh boy, were they good.

As South Nodaway in 2020, they were runner-up with a 28-4 record. In 2022, they were state champs at 29-1 and this year, the squad was 30-1.

As Jefferson (Conjunction), they were state champs in 2021 at 31-0 and third place in 2023 with a 28-4 record.

So, Platte Valley (aka South Nodaway, aka Jefferson (Conception Junction)), has been 118-6 since 2020, an unbelievable run by these outstanding girls.

How could Gramps ever doubt?  Well, Meadville had about a 60-game winning streak and Delta was scoring nearly 100 points a game down in the Missouri Bootheel.  And Northeast Cairo was making a lot of noise. They all played a slightly tougher schedule which elevated their ratings.

Statistics suggested those three teams would battle it out with Platte Valley a dark horse, but the Longhorn girls decided on the court, no matter what the statistics say, and the Longhorns proved Gramps wrong again.

Congrats!  And please get MSHSAA to settle on Platte Valley.  These name changes every year drive me nuts.

Updated February 24th

Gramps is still cruising but had a chance to look over Class One District predictions 

Based on ratings, Gramps picked 87% of 92 games and 13 out of 16 District champs

• Delta has a easy path to a district one title. 4/4 correct
• Chadwick has to beat South Iron or Bunker or both in district 2. 6/6 correct
• District 3 is one of the weakest but very competitive with Billings, School of the Ozarks and Thomas Jefferson Independent but I will give School of the Ozarks (as the host school) a slight edge over Billings. 4/6 correct with Thomas Jefferson winning this tight district 
• District 4 is Walnut Groves, hands-down. 5/6 correct 
• District 5 is Macks Creek assuming they can get by Wheatland.  6/6 correct
• Liberal should edge out Hume in district 6.  5/5 correct 
• Appleton City should win District 7. 6/6 correct 
• In the weakest district (8), Pilot Grove has a slight edge over Bunceton 5/6 correct
• District 9 is a toss-up with Higbee and St. Elizabeth but St. Elizabeth gets the nod as the host school. 5/6 correct
• District 10 belongs to Northeast Cairo but Marion County and North Shelby could challenge. 5/6 correct
• District 11 is the strongest and most competitive district, with Princeton, Mercer, Green City and Grundy County all making a claim to this  championship trophy.  I give Princeton a slight edge as host school. 3/5 correct with Green City winning
• District 12 is all Meadville.  Glasgow gives them a tough go but loses by 35. 5/6 correct 
• Braymer should win another weak district in District 13 5/6 correct with Wellington-Napoleon in an upset
• District 14 is not strong but very competitive with Gilman City, Ridgeway/Cainsville, and Pattonsburg vying for a title with Gilman City a slight favorite. 4/6 correct with Pattonsburg in a mild upset
• St. Joseph Christian should get by King City, Mound City and North Andrew in District 15 6/6 correct 
• District 16 is owned by Platte Valley/South Nodaway/Jefferson/Conception Junction or whatever MSHSAA wants to call them. 6/6 correct 
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Updated February 6th, 2024

Class One Missouri Girls is filled with outstanding teams but this is a historic year for Meadville, led by Coach Steve Carvajal, whose teams have won 300 plus games and over 50 straight in the past two years.  

Yeah, Delta (18-1) has been blowing up the bootheel of Missouri, scoring over 85 points while giving up less than 40 points per game.  Their only loss is to a tough McCracken County team from Paducah, Kentucky.

Northeast Cairo (17-5, 61 points for/38.5 points against) has been dynamite in North Central Missouri, losing twice to South Shelby, a top 10 class three-team, and Helias, #6 in Gramps Class five schools.  They are battle-ready.

And then there is Platte Valley (South Nodaway/Jefferson Conception) who is 20-0, a perennial winner, and the 2022 state champs, who play exceptional defense (51.7 PF/24 PA).

Any of these three teams could knock off Meadville, but I doubt it.  Meadville (21-0) has too many weapons, combining a high-powered offense (79 ppg) and a suffocating defense (26 ppg).  Delta, NE Cairo or Platte Valley might challenge, but without mishap or injury, Meadville should repeat as Missouri's Class One state champion.

Here are the Class One Girls by rating.  

Below this table are the ratings by District and a discussion about the path to the state championship game.

How do the districts look? (Note: Below the team listings, the rank average is on the left and the ratings average on the right for all districts so that you can see how strong the districts are)

• Delta has a easy path to a district one title.
• Chadwick has to beat South Iron or Bunker or both in district 2.
• District 3 is one of the weakest but very competitive with Billings, School of the Ozarks and Thomas Jefferson Independent but I will give School of the Ozarks (as the host school) a slight edge over Billings.
• District 4 is Walnut Groves, hands-down.
• District 5 is Macks Creek assuming they can get by Wheatland.
• Liberal should edge out Hume in district 6.
• Appleton City should win District 7.
• In the weakest district (8), Pilot Grove has a slight edge over Bunceton
• District 9 is a toss-up with Higbee and St. Elizabeth but St. Elizabeth gets the nod as the host school.
• District 10 belongs to Northeast Cairo but Marion County and North Shelby could challenge.
• District 11 is the strongest and most competitive district, with Princeton, Mercer, Green City and Grundy County all making a claim to this championship trophy.  I give Princeton a slight edge as host school.
• District 12 is all Meadville.  Glasgow gives them a tough go but loses by 35.
• Braymer should win another weak district in District 13
• District 14 is not strong but very competitive with Gilman City, Ridgeway/Cainsville, and Pattonsburg vying for a title with Gilman City a slight favorite.
• St. Joseph Christian should get by King City, Mound City and North Andrew in District 15
• District 16 is owned by Platte Valley/South Nodaway/Jefferson/Conception Junction or whatever MSHSAA wants to call them.

 The state tournament brackets are set up with districts 1-4 and 9-12 in the top bracket and 5-8 and 13-16 are in the bottom bracket.  What's that mean for top-ranked teams?

In the top bracket, Delta faces a tough first-round opponent, Chadwick, and then that winner most likely faces Walnut Grove in the quarterfinals.  In the other half of the top bracket, NE Cairo will face off against either Higbee or St Elizabeth and then have to face Meadville, after they dispose of their District 11 opponent (Princeton, Mercer or Green City).

The semi-final game will then be a doozy with Meadville vs. Delta, if all goes to plan.  The winner of that semi-final will probably end up playing Platte Valley in the final, but that is not a certainty.

Platte Valley will have to get by St. Joseph Christian in the opening round and, most likely, Macks Creek in the semi-final.

Of course, they still have to play their games.

That's what Gramps is thinking at this point.  I will update my state predictions after the district finals are played.

Updated January 23rd, 2024

Gramp's new Class One Girls Braggin' Rights has all the same teams as the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association (MBCA) poll but not necessarily in that order.  Meadville is the consensus #1 but I have Delta at #2 while the coaches voted Platte Valley (South Nodaway-Jefferson Conception) at #2.  I like Platte Valley and they always have great teams but the rating statistics just don't add up, even if I weight the games they have played against better teams.

Gramps keeps taking a deeper look at the Class One Girls to see if anything has changed with Delta, Meadville and Platte Valley (South Nodaway-Jefferson Conception) and I do not see any evidence to change my ratings.  I think the class one coaches have done a nice job of voting in the top 15 teams, although St. Elizabeth has not received any recognition.

Truth be told, I have a ton of respect for Platte Valley but I have NE Cairo and Chadwick wedged in front of Platte Valley for my #4 and #5 teams.

I compared the three teams (Meadville, Delta and Platte Valley) vs their opponents (see my comparison tables below the ratings):  

Meadville (14-0) has the stronger strength of schedule (average of opponents ratings) at 106.6 (see the charts below the new ratings) and continues to outscore opponents 74-28, a 46-point differential. They have two teams, Green City and Bishop LeBlond, that test them in January and early February.

Delta and Platte Valley play a similar strength schedule at about 102.  Delta runs up some big scores with a point differential of 88 points for to 32 points against.  Their schedule gets a little harder with Park Hill Central and Portageville over the next month.  

Platte Valley plays a more controlled offense and tight defense with a scoring differential of 53 PF to 32 PA.  That strategy took them a long way through the state playoffs last year, losing to Chadwick, the current #4 team in my ratings.  The top four teams in the ratings will all be in the top bracket at the state tournament (Districts 1-4, 9-12) while the lower bracket has Platte Valley, or West Nodaway (if they were to beat out Platte Valley at Districts), St. Joes Christian, Macks Creek fighting it out.

Are Meadville and Delta that good?  Is Platte Valley better than Gramps currently rates them?

It should be an interesting next six weeks.

Here are the team comparison tables....

Class One Missouri Girls update January 1, 2024

My new kitten is slowing down my basketball calculations.  After being a wild, feral kitten for his first six weeks, he is now a lap cat and won't let me do any computer work until he gets a good belly rub.

I took another look at the top 30 in Missouri girl's class one basketball and Meadville is still head and shoulders above the rest, although NE Cairo is making steady improvement and is now slightly ahead of undefeated Delta.  The other undefeated team, Platte Valley is looking very good, but I can't fathom how they might match up with Delta and Meadville without some more games.  Their competition has been as good as the other two but the rating is still a ways back.  I expect they will still make noise by state tournament time.

St. Joseph Christian moved up substantially with their eleven-point loss to Meadville but their other wins don't add up to more than a 128 rating.

The MBCA poll is doing pretty well with the class one girls.  I don't see any outliers although I would give St. Elizabeth and Princeton some consideration, coaches.

And with that, the lap cat is demanding another belly rub.  Time to go.  Happy New Year.

 

Here are Gramp's Braggin' Rights Missouri HS girls basketball ratings - Class One  - December 4th

I said I would start ratings in mid-December but I pulled together the class one girls first because of some notable teams in Missouri's smallest class.

Of note are Meadville, the reigning state champion from North Central Missouri, and Delta, the top team in the bootheel.  Both teams rocked their regular seasons last year, with Meadville outscoring opponents by 82.3-21.7 on average.  Delta blew through opponents down in the southeast until states, when the competition stiffened.  Their scoring differential was 105.7-25.7 but ran into a tough Chadwick team and lost 56-54 in a quarterfinal game.  Chadwick would eventually lose by eleven to Meadville.

This year, Meadville has outscored their first three opponents, 247-67, or 82-22 per game.  60-point favorites. Yikes. Meadville may be even better than last year as their rating has risen from 144 at the end of last season to 156 early this season.

Delta is putting up big numbers, outscoring their three opponents 317-77, or a 106-26 clip per game.  Delta's rating is also up from 134 to 152 in the early season ratings.  Expect both of these teams to make it to the final eight at state come March.  

Both Delta and Meadville could give some class five or six teams fits.  I don't know if these ratings will hold up but they look tough right now.  Time will tell.

Who else looks good early?  Northeast Cairo is rocking too and Mack's Creek, Green City, Platte Valley, Chadwick, South Iron, and several others are starting fast.  

It's too early to call this a solid rating as some teams have only played two or three games but I thought I would give these teams a shoutout for their quick start.  

It will be an interesting run to the class one state championship.

Updated with 12/4 games

Posted 12/4