Gramp's Braggin' Rights 2023-2024 Missouri Boy's Basketball Ratings - Class Two

Updated March 8th, 2024

Final Missouri Boys Class Two ratings

Hartville, Weaubleau, Salisbury and Eugene have been on top of the Missouri Class Two Boys Basketball ratings all season, but it would take an exciting tournament to sort out who was the best.  

I had my money on Salisbury, with Dude, Cooper Francis, leading the way and Coop did not disappoint, with 31 points in the semi-final loss to Weaubleau and another 37 points in the second-place game with South Pemiscot.

The Dude from Weaubleau, Gage Johnson, lit up the scoreboard with 32 of his 39 points in the win over Salisbury.  Gage had more help on his team than Coop did.  A team with a Dude and more balance will generally beat the Dude from the other side.

But it was tradition-rich Hartville with excellent defensive and offensive team play on both ends of the court that won out.  Hartville put the clamps on Eugene in the first-round game and then rolled over South Pemiscot and Weaubleau in the semi-final and final for their fourth state title since 2016.  

Congrats to the Hartville Eagles on another stellar season and to Weaubleau, Salisbury and South Pemiscot for your fine finishes.

Updated February 26th, 2024

Gramps and Grama had a good time on their well-deserved Caribbean cruise last week but it is back to the grindstone with figuring out how my Class Two ratings predicted the district play-offs last week.  Gramps predicted 87% of the Class One teams correctly but there were more "upsets" in Class Two.

Gramp's top-rated teams in Class Two won 75% of their districts but upstarts like St. Vincent, Harrisburg, Canton, and especially College Heights Christian, which dropped Gramp's below the 80% prediction goal.  In another topsy-turvy District 3, favored Puxico won but bottom-rated Advance tore through Bloomfield and Meadow Heights before losing by 32 to Puxico.

In District 4, #7 Van Far was sent packing by #15 Harrisburg, and in District 5, #11 Canton dispatched #9 Putnam County and #10 Schuyler County but all three were at a 117 rating so it was a "pull the winner out of the hat" district.  District 12 winner, #55 College Heights dominated a slightly favored #48 Miller and then pulled off a 9-point win over #28 Ash Grove when they were 13-point underdogs.

Overall, the top six teams in Gramps ratings are State-tournament bound.  I will update all the ratings before the State tournament games begin. 

Updated February 13th, 2024

There is a log-jam on top of the Missouri Class Two boys basketball ratings and it bodes well for two teams and not so well for the other two.

The state tournaments are set up with District 1-4 and 9-12 in one bracket and Districts 5-8 and 13-16 in the other bracket.  That means that Hartville and Eugene are in the top bracket and Salisbury aad Weaubleau are in the bottom bracket.  

It would not be bad news for Hartville and Eugene if the brackets were seeded so that they played in a semi-final game but they are not and District 9 plays District 10 in the opening round of the state tournament.

That's right.  Two potential state champions, playing in the opening round.  Salisbury and Weaubleau, the third favorite, have an easier path to a possible semi-final matchup.  Their bracket places them so that they would not meet until the third-round game. 

Of course, all of this only happens if these teams win their district titles and there will be teams challenging them along the way.  Assuming all goes to plan, at least two of these top four teams could be playing in the state tournament game.

I will talk more about the state tournament after district playoffs which are discussed below the ratings table.

Listed below are the Class Two teams sorted by District. District 10 looks to be the toughest, followed closely by Districts 6 and 7.

 Here are my thoughts on each District:

• District 1: South Pemiscot is a slight favorite over challengers Neelyville and Campbell
• District 2: Cabool will have a tough road with Van Buren and Summersville
• District 3: Puxico is a clear favorite
• District 4: Bismarck and Valley Caledonia are co-favorites
• District 5: Van Far gets a slight nod over co-favorite Harrisburg
• District 6: Pick-Em district with Putnam Co., Schuyler Co. and Canton tied in ratings
• District 7: Salisbury is clear favorite but New Franklin and Glasgow are lurking
• District 8: Tipton is a very slight favorite over NW Hughesville and Green Ridge
• District 9: Eugene is the clear favorite
• District 10: Hartville should win but Norwood, Gainesville and Bakersfield might challenge
• District 11: Blue Eye should win out
• District 12: Ash Grove is my pick
• District 13: Weaubleau should make room in the trophy case
• District 14: Crest Ridge might be challenged by Archie
• District 15: A Platt wins, most probably Plattsburg over West Platte
• District 16: Maysville has to fight off Princeton and West Nodaway

Of course, all the teams have to play the games.  Anything can happen.  Good luck to all.

Update January 20, 2024

Well, if you can believe it, today I had a Missouri Class Two coach contact me about updating and posting the Class Two Boys Basketball ratings.  I felt pretty darn good about reposting these ratings because the coach wanted some tips on who to vote for in the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association poll.

There is a lot of calculation still to come but things are settled at the top of Class Two Boys with Salisbury and Eugene, neck and neck, Hartville, Weaubleau and New Franklin right behind.  There is a log jam right behind with eight or nine teams right on top of one another.

Continued success to all of these teams.

 

January 2, 2024

Here are the new Missouri class two boys basketball ratings.  I have been comparing my most recent class one boys and girls and class two girls to the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association polls and there were several what I would call misses on teams that belong on the MBCA coaches poll radar.  

I hope I don't come off as mean-spirited.  I just want teams that deserve recognition to be voted by the coaches.  My statistics say they belong.

For Class 2 boys, the MBCA poll is much closer in agreement with my statistical assessment.  Yeah, the rank order is slightly different but there is no clear leader in class two boys.  You could put Eugene, Weaubleau, Hartville, and Salisbury in a hat and draw one out and have a solid #1 team.

But Gramp's still favors Salisbury for one reason.  The Dude.  Cooper Francis.  I don't want to put any extra pressure on an outstanding player but when the game is going down to the buzzer, you want a Dude with the ball to finish with a flourish.  Weaubleau has Gage Johnson.  Eugene has Ethan Wunderlich.  Hartville has Jaylon Cryer, Logan Simpson, and Grant Culver.  When it gets down to it, any of these Dudes might get hot in the state finals and win it all. Time will tell.

And who are we missing?  Well, coaches, take another look at Harrisburg and Van-Far in District 5, Glasgow in District 7, or Schuyler County Lancaster in District 6, who has beaten Canton and barely lost to Putnam County.  Throw those three in a hat and pick the District champ.  Too close to call.

Of course, New Franklin will have something to say about District 7, and Norwood will try and make a statement in District 10.

And the state brackets?  Eugene and Hartville, assuming they win their districts, will meet in the first round of state in the upper bracket.  Assuming Salisbury and Weaubleau win their districts, they would meet in the semi-finals of the lower bracket.  At least two of the top four teams could play in the final, but that is a long way off.

Let's enjoy the next six weeks of regular season play.

 

Edited 12/21/2023

I have refigured some class two teams that were not fully rated.  Maysville, Van Far, Putnam County, Canton and St. Joseph Christian all moved up significantly with their full schedule of games in the model.  Here is the latest class two boys ratings:

12/19/2023

What I really need right now is a nap.  I am getting bleary-eyed, looking at class two boys' scoreboards and figuring out their power rating.  When it takes a minute to enter each team's season to date, my head nodding adds about five minutes to each calculation.  At that rate, I might finish class 2 boys by April.

There are other factors in determining a team's power rating but head-to-head score differential is the best number.  When you have two really close teams, it finally comes to what Earl Austin, Jr. calls the DUDE factor, I call it the IT factor.  Does that team have the guy or gal that will rise above others and take over a game?  It's not something I can factor into a statistics model.

Last year, Earl told me he liked Salisbury.  He said "Salisbury can definitely win it all because they have good players, a HOF coach and they have a guy in Cooper. Even in Class 2, you have to have a serious dude and they have one in Coop.

Look at the most recent Class 2 champs, Norwood had Devault, Campbell had Fowler, Hartville had Piper and a loaded team, and Greenwood had Aminu. I put Francis in that category".

Right now, I have Eugene on top of the class two pack and they have a point guard named Ethan Wunderlich who fits the bill, a "serious dude", as Earl would say.  But over at defending champion Salisbury, they have a guy with a big IT factor, named Cooper Francis, who has been there and done that.  Defending state champs, and they did it despite a tragic death of a player just the week before the title game.  

How could Gramps not have Salisbury at #1?  The numbers don't add up yet, but they probably will along the way.  Cooper Francis will take over some big games.  So will Ethan Wunderlich.  It depends on who gets hot in the playoffs.

Some other teams with serious dudes with IT factors might make noise in class two.  Harrisburg has Trace Combs. Weaubleau has Gage Johnson.  Glasgow has Jackson Meyer and Jordan Fuemmeler.  Hartville?  Well, Hartville is just Hartville.  Home of tradition, gutsy defense, and gritty offense.  To be a great team doesn't always mean you have to have that IT factor guy or gal.  Some coaches just do it with kids who don't mind out-working other teams on both ends of the floor.  But it doesn't hurt to have that "serious dude".

Time will tell.  Class 2 has a glut of great teams near the top.  Could be anybody's state title, but Cooper Francis will have a say in that.  Don't take that dude lightly. Seriously!