Gramp's Braggin' Rights 2023-2024 Missouri Boy's Basketball Ratings - Class Four
FINAL UPDATE MARCH 17TH, 2024
Was there ever any doubt about Vashon winning another MO Class Four boys basketball championship? I do not think so.
Vashon has established themselves as the premier team in the state of Missouri and they deserve all the accolades possible. Congrats to Coach Tony Irons and his gifted team. I wish them continued success.
While I knew what was going down in the final between Vashon and John Burroughs, I was secretly hoping that Coach Peewee Lenard and his Bombers would hang on and keep it close. As I said in the column below, I got to watch Peewee as he coached the St. Louis Magic. He tirelessly coached three or four teams that included two of my grandsons. I always was impressed with Peewee's approach. He hollared and screamed at those kids all throughout the game, sometimes with a few choice words that you don't usually use around kids but when the game was over, he loved them all. They ended the game with the Lord's Prayer and thanked God for their chance to compete.
I hope Coach Lenard doesn't mind me saying this, because I just want to remind people that we all need second chances along the way of life. Peewee got a bum rap some thirty years ago. He was falsely convicted in a fraud case and was out of high school coaching for a long time. He finally got a pardon from the Governor and John Burroughs gave him a chance to get back into high school coaching. Thank God that Burroughs gave this wonderful man a second chance. He has brought the Bombers to a new level with his coaching and I wish him the best going forward.
The last time the Bombers were in a state final was 1953. Hopefully, Peewee will have them back facing Vashon for another state title for the next few years.
Congrats to all four great schools in the final four. Here's Gramps last Class Four ratings:
Updated March 12, 2024
It is nearly time to say goodbye. I have really enjoyed Gramps Statistical Ratings for the past seven years, but I am hanging it up. My last grandson at Eureka is graduating and, while I might have a sixth grader at Parkway West make a high school team in a few years, I think I need to pass the baton.
If you have an interest or know of a group that would like to take Gramps over (and call it whatever you like), I most certainly will pass on how this all works. I know Scoreboard Guy has a group of coaches that are interested but I will entertain all inquiries. Email me at Grampsbbratings@gmail.com
I have really enjoyed watching some kids grow up and become ballers during this season. The grandson played with several teams that had kids who are now starting on varsity teams that are still in the hunt.
One of those teams was coached by Andrew Sitton, who had his son, Blake, and a kid named "Mouse" Christian Williams, playing up with our grandson, along William Sergel, another Eureka senior. Occasionally, Andrew would recruit Jack LeMatty, Nate Dorner, Mason Dunlap, and a few other Eureka players on their seventh and eighth-grade teams back four or five years ago. Mouse is now a point guard on Vashon. He was a skinny little, five-foot-tall gym rat with dreadlocks back then. I am sure I would not recognize him now. I was lucky enough to see all those Eureka kids blossom into a great squad this season, including seeing Blake move up to varsity at the end when injuries required a solid guard.
Another team that had Eureka kids was Peewee Lenard's 2024 Magic team. Peewee also had Lafayette's John Renken, who blossomed this past year into Lafayette's top scorer, Iose Epenesa, an Edwardsville D-1 football recruit and potential future NFL football player, Jahadi and Jamison White, the 6'7" and 6'8" sophomore phenoms at Chaminade, and another sophomore star, Sheek Pearson, a 6'9" starring forward for John Burroughs under Coach Lenard. I wasn't an astute basketball authority on individual players, but you could tell these guys all had the potential to grow into their bodies and become impact players in high school.
Yeah, I have been fortunate to follow some talented young kids grow up and now it is time to move on (and, yes, the grandson was a good player too, but is headed to college to play Lacrosse as a long stick mid defensemen).
Here's the latest Missouri Boys Class Four ratings with Vashon, Kansas City Central Academy, John Burroughs and Logan-Rogersville still left in the hunt. I am rooting for Mouse and Sheek in the final but I don't give the Bombers much of a chance against the Wolverines.
Updated February 28th, 2024
Here's a quick update on Class Four Boys basketball with just a few minor changes. Good luck to all the boys teams in districts
Updated February 15, 2024
I feel like I should be really excited about Class Four Missouri Boys and the run-up to the State Championship. In a way I am. I am excited about who might make it to the final with Vashon, the perennial St. Louis near north-side powerhouse.
I used to work near Vashon at a complex that was right in the heart of many streets of deserted buildings. It was discouraging to see how far-gone some of the homes were, roofs falling in and brick walls teetering. Part of that area was supposedly from the time when "Meet me in St. Louis" was a big movie hit.
I was thrilled to see Vashon transform it's school and be a magnet for students in such a dire neighborhood. I am thrilled to see how well its athletic teams do, given the area that it is in. I applaud their tenacity.
I guess I am getting old. I remember watching a little fifth-grader with dreadlocks play for Andrew Sitton's seventh-grade team. His name was Christian Williams, but he went by mouse. Heck of a player and he played with Andrew's fifth-grade son, Blake. Both are sophomores now at Vashon and Eureka, respectively. Mouse has been a factor in Vashon's success, scoring 8 point-per-game but dishing out 3 assists-per-game at the point guard position. He's just getting started and now at 6 foot tall, I would not recognize the little dude that played for Sitton.
Blake had a coming-out party last night for Eureka, playing his first varsity game. He was the point guard on the freshman team last year and started with JV this year. He got a call-up when Eureka's start PG Mason Dunlap was charged with an uncharacteristic flagrant foul in the game with Webster Groves and had to sit last night against Rockwood Summit. Replays of the foul show that Mason had his hand on the ball when the foul was called by a trailing official with a bad view.
Sitton went into the game in the second quarter and handled the ball well. Getting more time in the third and fourth quarter, he scored ten points on 2-2 shooting from two and 2-3 from behind the arc. The kid is going to be a good one, maybe helping the young Eureka team down the stretch. Blake is just another of the great underclassmen including Jaxson Joggerst, Jack Cubbage, Larry Reed, Joes Rauls and others that will be coming back strong next year. But that's another story.
Anyway, watching these kids play varsity ball after seeing them five or six years ago makes me feel old.
Who's behind Vashon, waiting for an opportunity to see them stumble? Well, Borgia took down Tolton the other day and Principia took down John Burroughs. MICDS is hanging tough too. Logan-Rogersville and KC Central are just behind with a logjam of about twelve teams that might make a final four.
Here's a look at the district seeding in my mind, below:
- District 1: Ste. Genevieve and Kennett are co-favorites
- District 2: Park Hills Central has the edge over Potosi
- District 3: Blair Oaks has a slight advantage over Salem
- District 4: A dogfight between three teams, #4 John Burroughs, #5 MICDS, and #6 Principia, where any of them could go to the final four.
- District 5: Vashon in a walk
- District 6: U City the favorite
- District 7: #2 Borgia gets the nod
- District 8: Mexico has a slight edge over Hallsville, Kirksville
- District 9: Father Tolton
- District 10: Strafford with the slightest edge over Springfield Catholic and Osage
- District 11: Log-Rog walks in the park
- District 12: Aurora and Seneca battle
- District 13: St. Michael Archangel over Nevada and Harrisonville
- District 14: Barstow over Center
- District 15: Central Academy, hands down
- District 16: Benton, Maryville and Chillicothe battle it out
Updated January 29, 2024
Fixed error with report form for Boonville
Updated January 28, 2024
The other day, I had a nice Zoom discussion with Tyler Monier, All MO Sports, about my comparative statistical modeling and his excellent new statistical modeling with strength of schedule, point differential, and winning record. I still need to dig into what he is doing to fully understand the workings of his statistics but he uses some different parts of the team's performance to gauge the team's rating, than the simpler comparative model that I have utilized. We agreed to revisit after spending some time reviewing each other's work.
Tyler has posted some predictions for several games and I have chimed in on a few of these. It is fun looking at how teams might do against various opponents. We let the boys or girls play the game. The predictions are just for fun. I, for one, do not want the kids to think the result is already in the bag if I give a spread.
So Tyler put out some key games Saturday morning and I chimed in on one he did not forecast. The one game he did not predict was Vashon vs. Cape Girardeau Central. He did not feel like he had enough local games to predict but I did. I have rated Vashon's national opponents to give them the 159 rating I have awarded them for most of the season.
I posted that Vashon was a 28-point favorite. Quite the prediction, given how good Cape Central is (#13 in my Class Five ratings). Well, the Wolverines ended up winning by 26. Not too shabby. I also predicted that Meadville girls would beat Mercer by 30 (won by 53) and Tina Avalon by 71 (won by 69). Not too shabby either.
I went back to compare how Tyler and Gramps did on his post. Here's his post (on the left) and my comparison (on the right) below:
Tyler picked 3 of the six games right and passed on Vashon. Gramps picked four of the seven games. We both missed on three really close games. New Madrid Co. Central "upset" Nixa, Fatima "upset" Eugene, and Webster Groves "upset" Springfield Central. When teams are rated that close, I cannot really call them upsets.
We will keep refining the models and posting predictions. Last year Gramps had 85% of the higher rated teams win from districts to state and nine of the twelve #1 rated teams won the boys or girls state title.
But enough about predictions. How about Class Four Boys?
A whole posse of great Class Four teams is in the hunt for a shot at Vashon in the state tournament. Father Tolton looks good at #2, District 4 is packed with John Burroughs, MICDS and Principia, District 7 Borgia, District 6 U City, and Kansas City Central, and St. Joseph's Benton on the West Side. Great teams but nowhere near Vashon. The predicted spread on every one of these teams, except for Father Tolton, would be over twenty points difference. Even Father Tolton, who will probably face Vashon in the Class Four final, will be doing good to keep the margin down to 15 points. Vashon is that GOOD.
The Vashon game margin vs. Cape Central was not a surprise to me. The Wolverines have played a tough national schedule and they are ready for another state championship run. I don't think I am putting any pressure on Vashon when I say they are the presumptive Class Four favorite for another state championship.
Here are my latest Class Four Boys Basketball ratings (can anyone tell me why Springfield Catholic deserves to be in a top ten poll?):
Updated January 15, 2024
It is not so bad to lose a game. Being undefeated for an entire season brings tremendous pressure on some coaches and players and it is truly disappointing to lose the last game of the season. Better to lose a game in the middle of the season rather than the last game.
Of course, Dan Rolfes at Incarnate Word probably doesn't mind winning. IWA is 12-0, ranked #17 in a national poll, and working on a 112-game winning streak. The Red Knights play, Lutheran St. Charles this week, the #3 team in the state, and they will be a twelve-point favorite. Twelve points is not a huge deficit to make up but IWA will continue to cruise. They play Louisville Sacred Heart, the #4 team in Kentucky, in Louisville on January 20th. It is not an easy schedule but the Red Knights machine keeps humming.
In all six classes, I believe only Class One Meadville and Class Six Incarnate Word are undefeated. Both will probably remain that way and win repeat state titles.
On the boy's side, there are less than a handful of undefeated teams. Class Five Ladue had a good run before losing last night at Jackson vs. a team who has struggled until they got their star point guard back, Blayne Harris, who just returned from a football injury. Ladue will be better off from the loss and it should help them finish strong without the pressure of that "undefeated" target on their back.
In Class Four Boy's, St. Francis Borgia is the only undefeated team left and I expect that will end on Tuesday when they travel to Cardinal Ritter. Borgia was 15-0 last year when they lost two in a row to St. Charles and Ritter and was eventually eliminated from the Class Five by Jeff City in a hard-fought sectional game. Borgia will hopefully learn from the Ritter game on Tuesday on what needs to be done to make a run at Vashon in the state tournament. I expect Ritter to win by fifteen.
Teams like Vashon and Cardinal Ritter do not worry about records. They want to get "hardened" for a run at another state title, taking on national-caliber talent and coming into January with a 50-50 record at times. The formula seems to work, as they dominate Missouri teams. Ritter was moved up from class five to six this year and has a good shot at winning the state title, but there is no question that Vashon is the odds-on favorite to win the Class Four boys state championship.
Who else has a shot? In the top state tournament bracket, Districts 1-4 and 9-12 compete, so Father Tolton has the inside track on that bracket. They will be challenged by John Burroughs, Park Hill Central, and Principia.
The lower state bracket is stacked with great teams, which includes Districts 5-8 and 13-16. Besides Vashon, Maryville, Hallsville, KC Central, Mexico, Kirksville, Borgia, St. Michael Archangel, and St. Joseph Benton make it a crowded field. The state championship-caliber game might be between Vashon and Maryville in the semi-final, although a Vashon -Tolton championship should also be entertaining, although Vashon would be a 15- to 20-point favorite in both of those match-ups. Not bad for a 9-4 team.
Who has the MBCA coaches poll missed?
Kirksville, St. Michael's, and MICDS, to name a few. Springfield Catholic, the #10 team in the MBCA poll is #29 in Gramp's statistical ratings.
Enjoy the ratings and the Hot Stove discussions. I will post another update in a couple of weeks.
Posted December 13, 2023
Gramp's Braggin' Rights Missouri Boys class four ratings are firming up although I still have some questions about some teams.
No, no questions about #1. Vashon Wolverines. Enough said. Second best team in state behind Oak Park, although if they played again, it might be a different outcome.
No, the questions are about #2 Maryville, who has started fast out of the gate. Are they for real? Are they better than Father Tolton or St. Francis Borgia? Their early victories suggest they are but more games will tell the real story.
Here is my first pass at class four
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